Risk premium drill

Why 50% equity isn’t enough near the bubble

A shove and a call, chips only, for the effective stack — the smaller of the two stacks — break even at exactly 50% equity, a coinflip, assuming no dead money in the middle. But once the payout ladder is priced in, the chips hero risks losing are worth more than the chips hero stands to win, so the true break-even shifts above 50%. The risk premium is that shift, expressed in percentage points, derived directly from the bubble factor on the same payout ladder shown for each spot. A real shove has blinds and antes already posted, which lowers the break-even slightly below the number shown here.

How close your guess needs to be

A guess within 1.5 percentage points of the exact figure counts as correct. The ten spots are fixed and never change, so a score here means the same thing on every attempt and two people can compare results directly.

Related pages

• ICM calculator →
• ICM lesson →
• Bubble factor drill →

Frequently asked questions

What is ICM risk premium?

A shove-and-call for the effective stack — the smaller of hero and villain’s stacks — breaks even at exactly 50% equity on chips alone, assuming no dead money in the middle. Once the payout ladder is priced in, the chips hero risks losing are worth more than the chips hero stands to win, so the true break-even sits above 50%. The risk premium is that shift, in percentage points.

How close does my guess need to be?

Within 1.5 percentage points of the exact figure counts as correct.

How is the risk premium related to the bubble factor drill?

It is the same underlying calculation, converted from a raw factor into a percentage-point adjustment. Both assume no dead money in the middle — a real shove with blinds and antes posted needs slightly less equity than the number shown here. The two drills use separate sets of spots, so neither is the answer key to the other.