Satellite bubble drill
Ten fixed call-or-fold shoves on a flat-payout satellite bubble, where three seats win an identical prize and the fourth wins nothing. Work out when a chip-EV-profitable call is still the wrong call.
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Why a flat payout changes the maths
Every spot in this drill pays the same $1,500 pool the same way: three $500 seats, four players, one seat short. Unlike a ladder that rewards finishing higher and higher, a satellite seat is worth exactly $500 whether you scrape in with the shortest stack at the table or bury everyone else — winning by more wins nothing more. That caps a big stack’s upside once it’s already comfortably going to qualify: extra chips buy almost nothing, but busting still loses the whole $500. The chip-EV-favourite call can be a real money-losing mistake, which is the headline lesson this drill exists to teach.
What to look at before answering
The stack bars pick out you (hero) and the seat that shoved (villain) against the rest of the table, and the payouts alongside show the flat $500/$500/$500/$0 split. Four of the ten spots have a positive chip-EV for calling but an ICM-correct fold — in the most extreme, hero holds 8,000 chips with 65% equity to win the pot if called, a chip-EV of calling over +3,440 chips, and it is still a $114 mistake against the flat payout. Half of the ten spots are call, half are fold, so a constant guess scores no better than a coin flip.
Frequently asked questions
- What makes a satellite bubble different from a normal payout ladder?
- A satellite pays every qualifying seat the same prize — here, three $500 seats and a fourth stack that wins nothing. Winning by more chips wins no more money, which caps a big stack’s upside once it’s already comfortably going to qualify: extra chips buy almost nothing, but busting still loses the whole seat.
- Can calling a chip-EV-profitable shove still be wrong?
- Yes — that is the drill’s headline lesson. Four of the ten spots have a positive chip-EV for calling but an ICM-correct fold; in the most extreme, an 8,000-stack hero with 65% equity and a chip-EV of calling over +3,440 chips is still a real-money mistake against the flat $500/$500/$500/$0 payout.
- How many questions are there?
- Ten fixed call-or-fold spots per attempt, in a repeatable order, split evenly between call and fold so a constant guess scores no better than a coin flip. Play again for another pass at the same ten.
- How is the correct answer worked out?
- By the same ICM solver behind the ranked Trainer’s ICM puzzles, comparing the expected prize-pool equity of calling against folding on the flat payout structure shown.
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