Work out how often a bet or bluff needs to fold your opponent to break even.
50.0%
Required fold %
Practise minimum defence frequency until it’s automatic, scored, no sign-in.
Practise the mdf drillIf the pot is P and you risk B, a pure bluff needs to work B / (P + B) of the time to break even — the same risk-versus-reward shape as pot odds, just from the bettor’s side of the table. If you also have some equity when called (a semi-bluff), that lowers the fold frequency you need, since the times you get called and hit still win the pot.
Example 1
A pure bluff, pot-sized bet
Pot is $100, you bet $100 with no equity if called. Required fold % = 100 / (100 + 100) = 50%. If you expect them to fold less than half the time, this bluff loses money on average.
Example 2
A semi-bluff with backup equity
Pot is $60, you bet $40 with a draw giving 20% equity if called. Required fold % drops to 16.7% — far less than the 40 / (60 + 40) = 40% you’d need with zero equity, because the times you get called and hit still win you the pot.
Example 3
A big overbet needs a lot of folds
Pot is $50, you overbet $150 (3x pot) with no equity if called. Required fold % = 150 / (50 + 150) = 75%. The bigger the bet relative to the pot, the more often it has to work.
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