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Poker Challenges

Fold Equity Calculator

Work out how often a bet or bluff needs to fold your opponent to break even.

50.0%

Required fold %

How fold equity works

If the pot is P and you risk B, a pure bluff needs to work B / (P + B) of the time to break even — the same risk-versus-reward shape as pot odds, just from the bettor’s side of the table. If you also have some equity when called (a semi-bluff), that lowers the fold frequency you need, since the times you get called and hit still win the pot.

Worked fold equity examples

  1. Example 1

    A pure bluff, pot-sized bet

    Pot is $100, you bet $100 with no equity if called. Required fold % = 100 / (100 + 100) = 50%. If you expect them to fold less than half the time, this bluff loses money on average.

  2. Example 2

    A semi-bluff with backup equity

    Pot is $60, you bet $40 with a draw giving 20% equity if called. Required fold % drops to 16.7% — far less than the 40 / (60 + 40) = 40% you’d need with zero equity, because the times you get called and hit still win you the pot.

  3. Example 3

    A big overbet needs a lot of folds

    Pot is $50, you overbet $150 (3x pot) with no equity if called. Required fold % = 150 / (50 + 150) = 75%. The bigger the bet relative to the pot, the more often it has to work.

Frequently asked questions

What is fold equity?
Fold equity is the value a bet gets from the chance your opponent folds, on top of whatever chance you have of winning if they call. This calculator gives the required fold % for a bet to break even, given the pot, your bet size, and your equity when called.
Does my equity when called matter?
Yes — a pure bluff with 0% equity when called needs bet / (pot + bet) worth of folds to break even. A semi-bluff with real equity when called needs fewer folds, because the times you get called and hit still win you the pot.
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